With the No. 15 pick in the 2024 MLB draft, the Seattle Mariners select...
An early look at three prospects the Mariners could prioritize this July
The 2024 MLB Draft is over seven months away but with the Mariners getting off to a sluggish start in the offseason, it feels like a good time to take a break from the dire outlook being portrayed about your Seattle Mariners all winter.
Let’s turn our heads to an early look at three prospects who could be available and make sense for the Mariners when they select with the No. 15 pick in July. Keep in mind, these players could dramatically increase or decrease their stock during the 2024 baseball season.
1. C Jacob Cozart — NC State
First, the player: Coming out of NC State, 20-year-old Jacob Cozart is a glove-first backstop with a strong arm that is going to catch professionally. The left-handed batter needs the hit tool to come around to realize his all-star potential. The latest exceptional ACC catcher figure to go anywhere between picks 1-25. Joe Doyle at Future Stars Series has Cozart going No. 21 to the Minnesota Twins in his 2024 MLB Mock Draft 2.0 and had this to say about him in his Top 200 college prospects in 2024:
A decorated defender with an above average arm, Cozart handles a pitching staff well and curbs the running game. He's widely regarded as one of the best pitch-framers in college baseball, and should develop into an overall plus defender as he matures into pro ball. The bat took a big step forward in 2023 featuring more punch and a better approach too. He's shown flashes of solid average power, and his long, projectable frame should continue to add more impact as he gets older. Cozart can get overwhelmed by spin at times, especially from right-handed pitchers, but his approach is strong and generally stays inside the zone at a healthy clip. The overall offensive profile has improved each year on campus, and now projects at least an average bat at the next level, maybe more with added strength.
He mashed .301/.392/.546 in 196 plate appearances in the ACC in 2023 with ten home runs and 24 walks. That is a great foundation to build on if he can begin to see the breaking ball better.
The fit here for the Mariners seems obvious with Cal Raleigh hitting free agency in 2028, Seattle doesn’t have a lot coming up through the system to replace him. Harry Ford is still a question mark to remain at catcher defensively, Blake Hunt would have to morph into a player he has not shown he is yet to retain a starting job behind the plate. Seby Zavala is a career back-up and prospects like Jake Anchia, Freuddy Batista and Andrew Miller don’t figure to be more than organizational depth.
That fit, however, could get slightly diminished if Major League Baseball decides to implement some version of the robo-ump in the near future. The value of a defensive catcher (outside of the arm) would take a hit, and the Mariners might not see the value in taking a pitcher’s best friend in round No. 1.
2. OF Vance Honeycutt — North Carolina
This is the type of profile at the plate the Mariners seem to covet as an organization. Patient, doesn’t chase and makes solid contact with 20-20 potential. While the power here is pretty far behind the hit tool (which is still improving in itself), it isn’t his carrying tool. In addition, he carries a double-plus run tool and plays the outfield extremely well. While Seattle has recently looked to take high-school talent in the first-round, a profile like Honeycutt could entice them to take a player with a quicker path to the big leagues than most of their current top bats in the system (Colt Emerson, Tai Peete, Felnin Celesten).
Here is Joe Doyle on Honeycutt:
Honeycutt has a chance to become a rare five-tool player at the next level. He’s long and projectable with serious upwards trajectory in his game. Honeycutt possesses plus raw power and a swing path built to capitalize on all of it. The hit tool has taken major strides from his freshman year as he’s really cut down the swing and miss, subsequently shrinking his strikeout rates too. Honeycutt was pitched to much more conservatively in 2023 and saw his chase rate absolutely plummet. He now resembles a more polished, patient hitter who damages mistakes over the plate. For now, it’s above average bat-to-ball skills with plus raw power and burgeoning use of it in-game.
While it may seem like a stretch for Honeycutt to reach the Mariners at No. 15 (Doyle has him going No. 11 to the Detroit Tigers in the 2.0 Mock Draft), we could see an early run on high school prospects, with the depth in that area severely lacking in 2024.
Barring position changes, the Mariners lack potential impact outfield prospects in the system outside of Gabriel Gonzalez, Jonny Farmelo and Aidan Smith. This would be a great get for Seattle after a 2023 draft that saw a run on infielders.
3. SS/RHP Bryce Rainer — Harvard-Westlake
This may be the most exciting profile in the 2023 draft. Rainer is throwing up to 97 mph on the mound with power at the plate and a plus arm in the infield. This is a potential five-tool player with a high-ceiling that scouts project ends up on the mound. He stands at 6’3” already and weighs 195lb and hasn’t even graduated.
Once again, Mr. Doyle had this dazzling report on him:
Rainer is a highly-decorated two-way player with a well-leveraged left-handed swing and legitimate game-power. He finishes on his heels, aiming for loft, a la Christian Yelich. Rainer has a big opposite field approach right now when facing velocity, an inside-out cut with late loft. When he’s out of front of spin, the pull-side juice is considerable. Rainer’s swing can corkscrew a bit when he over-swings, but the offensive upside here is sky-high. On the dirt, Rainer may ultimately grow off the shortstop position to third base or the outfield, but the bat is the seller here. Regardless of his eventual position, the frame is long, the bat speed is big, and the overall ceiling is significant.
This is the type of pick that would fall in line with what the Mariners philosophically have done recently in the early rounds. Whether or not they see Rainer as an infielder or starting pitcher could potentially affect this choice, as they could look for a player with a more defined role.
If Seattle is okay with high-risk play with upside and tools, there may not be a better fit in the draft.
I should be back before the holidays (hopefully because we have significant transactional news) but if not, I wish a happy holiday break to all. Also, don’t forget! You can gift a paid subscription at Mariners Wheelhouse to the fellow Mariners fan in your life! If you need assistance with this, let me know. Despite this article being free, most content will require a paid subscription.
Check out last weeks video podcast with guest Jason A. Churchill here: Cole Young & Tyler Locklear, backloaded FA deals, trade idea